https://www.thedailybeast.com/after-the-khashoggi-murder-pakistan-shakes-down-weakened-saudi-prince-for-dollar6-billion?yptr=yahoo
Pakistan
has emerged as an apparent winner from the international outcry that
followed a Saudi hit team’s murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in
Istanbul at the beginning of October. By rushing to stand by Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely accused of ordering the execution,
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan got a $6 billion aid package, which
he desperately needs to salvage the Pakistani economy. There undoubtedly
is more to the deal, including benefits for Saudi-backed terrorist
groups in Pakistan.
Khan was elected in August as a populist who
promised to shake up Pakistani politics and fight corruption. He was
aided by the all-powerful army intelligence service, the ISI, which was
determined to keep former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s party from
regaining power. Khan has long been a harsh critic of the United States
and friendly to the Taliban.
Better known for leading his country as a cricketer than as a
politician, Khan is a man in a hurry. He inherited an economy in crisis,
and shortly after the election Khan traveled to Saudi Arabia looking
for a bailout.
The Kingdom has been a major aid donor to Pakistan
for decades, but the Saudi war in Yemen has strained relations. Nawaz
Sharif turned down Mohammed bin Salman’s repeated requests for Pakistani
troops to help pursue the war against the Houthis in Yemen. Sharif took
the Saudi request to the Pakistani parliament, which unanimously voted
against sending troops—a stunning rebuke to Riyadh and the crown prince.
Without Pakistani armor the war quickly became a stalemate and an
expensive quagmire for Saudi Arabia. It costs at least $50 billion a
year and has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
“Since
the deal was signed, the Pakistani government has removed from a list
of proscribed groups two organizations headed by Hafez Saeed – the
mastermind of the Mumbai terrorist attack.”
The Pakistani
“no” on Yemen sent another message. For decades, Saudi Arabia had
implied that if it ever needed nuclear weapons it would have access to
the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, the fastest growing nuclear weapons
inventory in the world. But if Pakistan would not send troops to fight
the Houthis, it would surely not send the bomb. Mohammed bin Salman,
widely known as MBS, had eroded the Kingdom’s deterrent with his
reckless behavior in Yemen.
Imran Khan did not get a handout from
his first trip in September, but he went back last week, and the Saudi
crown prince is now a much-diminished figure in the wake of the Istanbul
affair.
Once touted as a reformer who would transform the
Kingdom, he is now condemned for the murder of Khashoggi, the
humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, a series of diplomatic gaffes, and
repression at home. A much advertised investment conference in Riyadh
was boycotted by most invitees from the West. The Saudi cover story
changed daily.
Khan got a deal this time. In fact, he got a bigger deal from his
second trip than he had asked for on his first. The Saudis provided Khan
with a $3 billion balance of payments deposit at a time when Pakistan’s
reserves are at a four-year low. In addition, the Saudis agreed to
defer payments for oil deliveries to Pakistan for three years, which is
worth at least another $3 billion. The Pakistanis are asking the United
Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s junior partner in Yemen, for additional
aid.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Qureshi has said that there
are no strings attached. Asked how the deal happened, the urbane Qureshi
said “by the grace of the Holy Prophet.” He was adamant that Pakistan
is not changing its approach on Yemen, and since Khan’s party is a
strong critic of the war, that’s probably correct. Qureshi also said
that the Saudi deal has nothing to do with the ongoing criminal charges
against Nawaz Sharif.
Since the deal was signed, the Pakistani government has removed from a
list of proscribed groups two organizations headed by Hafiz Saeed—the
mastermind of the Mumbai terrorist attack, which took place 10 years ago
next month. Saeed was one of the few voices who lobbied to send
Pakistani troops to fight in Yemen and he has long raised funds for his
terrorist activities in the Kingdom. He also has close ties to the ISI,
which trained and assisted the Mumbai killers.
The ISI also has a
long record of killing journalists who write about its connections to
terrorists like Saeed. He has a $10 million bounty on his head from the
United States.
By his own admission, Khan was desperate to get a
deal, and he played his cards wisely. He can also seek help from the
Chinese and Iranians in the weeks ahead. China has made a
multibillion-dollar commitment to build an economic corridor across
Pakistan linking western China to the Persian Gulf with a new port at
Gwadar on the Gulf of Oman. Khan has said he wants to mediate between
Saudi Arabia and Iran to ease tensions in the region and reduce
sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shias. Pakistan has a large Shia
majority and needs to calm down the Saudi-Iranian proxy war.
The
United States also needs Pakistan to help it get out of
Afghanistan. Donald Trump is a reluctant warrior in Afghanistan. He
agreed to stay last year against his own intuition. The Pakistanis have
provided sanctuary and safe havens for the Afghan Taliban for 17 years.
The ISI trains them and helps plan their military operations. The army
leadership has stonewalled American generals and diplomats from three
administrations seeking to end the connection to the Taliban. It’s only
gotten stronger.
Pakistan is still in deep economic trouble and
will probably need IMF aid. Khan played the Khashoggi backlash to his
advantage in Riyadh, but it is way too soon to suggest that he has a
coherent plan to make Pakistan prosperous and corruption free. For now,
it is amusing to see Mister Bone Saw—MBS’ new nickname—get shaken down
by a batsman.
No comments:
Post a Comment