Shipping confidence hits three year high

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Shipping confidence recorded its equal highest rating for three years in the three months ending May, 2017.

 

The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the quarterly Moore Stephens survey was up to 6.1 out of 10 from the 5.6 recorded in the previous survey in February, 2017. 

 

Increased confidence was recorded by all main categories of respondent to the survey, which launched in May, 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.

 

A number of respondents expressed cautious optimism about the industry’s fortunes over the next 12 months, based largely on perceived increased levels of ship demolition and a rationalisation of over-ambitious newbuilding plans, which helped increase expectations of major investments being made over the period. Concern persisted, however, over political uncertainty, overtonnaging in certain trades, depressed oil prices and a potential dearth of quality seafarers.

 

One respondent said, “Shipping people are eternally optimistic, with one week of good news seeming to help them forget eight terrible years of hardship and financial loss.”

 

Half of the respondents expected finance costs to increase over the coming year, compared to 54% in the previous survey.“The financial support needed to boost the markets is not yet at expected levels,” noted one respondent, “but we believe that the situation will improve in the coming months as demand increases.”

 

Demand trends, cited by 26% of respondents, continued to be the factor expected to influence performance most significantly over the next 12 months, followed by competition (22%) and finance costs (14%). According to one respondent,“Larger companies are targeting their smaller competitors in order to minimise competition and secure a stronger position in the market.”

 

The number of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey in all three main tonnage categories. In the tanker market, 32% of respondents anticipated improved rates, as opposed to 25% last time, while the number anticipating lower tanker rates fell from 28% to 16%. 

 

Richard Greiner, Partner, Shipping & Transport at Moore Stephens, said, “The survey launched in 2008, on the very cusp of one of the most protracted and severe global economic downturns, with a confidence rating of 6.8. In our latest survey, the figure stands at 6.1 which, given geopolitical, economic and industry developments, must be seen as a robust rating. Moreover, confidence today of making a major new investment is the highest it has been for almost three years. The positive sentiment on freight rates is welcome, although this must be weighed against the lows to which they have fallen and from which they must continue to recover.

 

“Even for an industry, which is familiar with the volatile nature of international commerce, shipping’s ability to survive adversity is worthy of comment. Our latest survey found many of our respondents in watchful mode, mindful of the fact that there are still too many ships, but encouraged to believe that increased demolition and more pragmatism by industry stakeholders will help to redress this imbalance. Respondents also remain cognisant of the impact which geopolitical developments can have on shipping, and it will be instructive to see what effect all this will have on industry confidence in our next quarterly survey,”he said.