http://www.businessinsider.com/rbc-opecs-spectrum-of-pain-2015-8
Reuters/Faisal Al Nasser
Risk for next year: 2
Oil production last month: 2.83 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 2.87 mb/d
Kuwait has a small population, a "substantial" sovereign wealth fun, and more shock absorbers for managing discontent. However, since oil accounts for 94% of Kuwait's revenues, lower oil prices have hurt the OPEC nation, according RBC Capital Markets analysts.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
All the OPEC members unhappy with lower oil prices, but not all are struggling equally.
"The 'spectrum of pain' is wide indeed," RBC Capital Markets' Global
Head of Commodity Strategy Helima Croft wrote in a note to clients.
Some countries are smaller and richer, and thus weathering the storm relatively well.
Others are poorer and have more interal political instability — and thus face greater challenges.
RBC Capital Markets assessed the status of each OPEC producer, and
identified which ones were doing well, and which ones were "most at risk
for a meltdown in the months ahead."
Each country is given a "risk for the next year" rank, where 10 is
the highest. We listed them from least at risk to most at risk.
Kuwait
Foreign Minister of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled al-Sabah.
Oil production last month: 2.83 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 2.87 mb/d
Kuwait has a small population, a "substantial" sovereign wealth fun, and more shock absorbers for managing discontent. However, since oil accounts for 94% of Kuwait's revenues, lower oil prices have hurt the OPEC nation, according RBC Capital Markets analysts.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Qatar
OPEC President Qatar's Minister of Energy and Industry Mohammed Saleh al-Sada.
Oil production last month: 0.67 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 0.71 mb/d
Qatar has a small population and lots of resources, which gives the OPEC nation one of the highest GDP/capita measures in the world. Plus, it has focused most of its resources on liquefied natural gas.
"Qatar's challenge will emerge later this decade," writes RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft.
Source: RBC Capital Market
United Arab Emirates
A group of Emiratis walk past the Burj Dubai Tower, the tallest tower in the world, on the day of its inauguration, in Dubai.
Oil production last month: 2.80 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 2.77 mb/d
"Flush with cash and few citizens, UAE sits in the sweet spot," writes Croft. That being said, the past year was still tough on the Emirates, and the government announced that it would cut spending by 4.2% and scale back on fuel subsidies.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Iran
A member of the Iranian Army waits for the farewell ceremony for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tehran.
Oil production last month: 2.85 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 2.79 mb/d
"Iran is our turn-around story of the year as it is poised to emerge from decades of economic and international isolation after the recently concluded nuclear deal," writes Croft. "While the pace of sanctions relief may prove slower than some are anticipating, given the low base Iran was starting from, we believe that it will prove a meaningful improvement — especially the access to SWIFT and hard currency in frozen accounts."
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi.
Oil production last month: 10.57mb/d
Oil production 2014: 9.67 mb/d
"Saudi Arabia continues to plunge deeper into the red in order to maintain its expansive social programs and muscular foreign policy," writes Croft. "Saudi recently resorted to domestic borrowing for the first time since 2007 to avoid an even larger draw-down of their FX reserves."
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Angola
Head office of Angolan state oil company Sonangol in the capital Luanda.
Oil production last month: 1.81 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 1.65 mb/d
Angola was in the middle of a civil war from 1975 to 2002, but now the country is relatively stable. Plus, foreign direct investment in the OPEC-nation shot up over the last five years.
"While there are risks stemming from cuts in government expenditures necessitated by lower oil prices, we think that bond issuance and economic diversification will help put a dent in these headwinds and thus help maintain stability," writes Croft.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Ecuador
President of Ecuador Rafael Correa.
Oil production last month: 0.54 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 0.56 mb/d
Ecuador has seen huge protests recently over the weaker economy, even despite the president's track record. And "protests could get worse going forward," writes Croft.
"Unfortunately we do not see a way out for Correa as even newly issued debt has already started to fall in price, making further borrowing prospects for the government even more expensive and exacerbating the risk of an unruly populace."
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Algeria
Security
guards use binoculars to keep watch during the Algeria Cup final soccer
match between CR Belcourt and Entente Setif in Algiers.
Oil production last month: 1.10 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 1.12 mb/d
"We believe that the looming leadership transition poses perhaps the biggest political near term risk. President Bouteflika (78) is reportedly in poor health and the recent sacking of three top generals has stoked fears of a power struggle within the ruling elite," writes Croft.
Additionally, violence between the Arabs and the Berbers is on the rise, and terrorism remains a concern following the Al Qaeda killings in July.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Nigeria
Nigeria's new President Muhammadu Buhari rides on the motorcade while inspecting the guard of honor at Eagle Square in Abuja.
Oil production last month: 1.88 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 2.04 mb/d
"President Buhari is currently fighting a two-front war — (1) against Boko Haram and (2) corrosive corruption — with empty coffers and critical cabinet vacancies," writes Croft. "The ex-general has dissolved the board of the state oil company and has banned over 100 tankers from accessing Nigerian waters after accusing them of complicity in the crude theft trade."
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Venezuela
A motorcycle taxi driver waits for customers in downtown Caracas.
Oil production last month: 2.49 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 2.46 mb/d
"Venezuela seems to be going from worse to worse," writes Croft. "The problems for the incumbents in the December 2015 parliamentary election are only going to magnify as sustained lower oil prices complete the troubling combination of rampant inflation and dwindling FX reserves."
Iraq
Iraqis
shout slogans during a demonstration against power cuts amid an intense
heatwave at Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, Iraq.
Oil production last month: 4.19 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 3.26 mb/d
"Iraq is the poster child for the divergence between political stability and the oil story," writes Croft. Oil output is at record highs, while "the economic and security picture continues to darken."
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Libya
A tank truck exits from the main gate of the Zawiya refinery and oil port towards the local market in Libya.
Oil production last month: 0.38 mb/d
Oil production 2014: 0.45 mb/d
Analysts write that there has been "near zero" progress in peace talks, and the country remains unstable.
"Overall, we see little indication that the country will improve imminently, and caution against factoring in the return of Libyan barrels any time soon," writes Croft.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
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