OPEC Forecasts Steady Oil Demand Growth in 2011, Led by Asia

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-15/opec-forecasts-steady-oil-demand-growth-in-2011-led-by-asia.html

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast that global oil demand will grow in 2011 at about the same rate as this year, led by developing economies such as China and India.

Worldwide crude oil consumption will increase by 1.05 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, next year to average 86.41 million barrels a day, the organization’s Vienna-based secretariat said today in its first assessment for 2011. This year OPEC predicts demand will grow 950,000 barrels a day, or 1.1 percent driven by countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“The global economic recovery, which is expected to start during the second half of 2010, is projected to continue through the whole of 2011,” OPEC said in the Monthly Oil Market Report. “As in the current year, next year’s oil demand growth will take place in the non-OECD, mainly China, India, the Middle East and Latin America.”

Crude demand is recovering around the world from a two-year slump, the steepest since the 1980s, triggered by the financial crisis and ensuing recession. Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded close to $77 a barrel today following a 78 percent rebound last year.

OPEC, responsible for 40 percent of global oil output, is anticipating less demand growth next year than the adviser to consuming OECD nations, the International Energy Agency. Two days ago, the Paris-based IEA forecast that oil usage will advance 1.3 million barrels, or 1.6 percent, to 87.8 million a day in 2011.

Non-OPEC Supply

OPEC predicted that producers outside the group will expand their supplies in 2011 by less than this year’s shipments. Non- OPEC suppliers will increase output by 300,000 barrels a day to 52.2 million a day, the organization said. That’s down from forecast growth for this year of 700,000 barrels a day.

As a result, the world’s need for crude from OPEC will increase. OPEC expects it will need to pump an average of 28.8 million barrels a day in 2011 to balance supply and demand, or 200,000 a day more than this year.

OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The organization’s next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 14 in Vienna.

--Editors: Raj Rajendran, Steve Voss.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss on sev@bloomberg.net