The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 10.90% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.84mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.39mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.59mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.47mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.85mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.37mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.74mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 477bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 648bcm is targeted for 2014. Asia Pacific gas production of an estimated 379bcm in 2009 should reach 531bcm in 2014, and implies net imports rising from around 98bcm to 117bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia's share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 7.97%, while its share of production is put at 19.01%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.24%, with the country accounting for 15.83% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at US$85.11, WTI at US$88.22, Urals averaging US$83.62 and Dubai at US$83.14. As stated in our January 2010 quarterly report, the 2011 OPEC basket price assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond.
For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.00/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$91.95/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$81.19 - compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$96.00/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Indonesian real GDP growth is assumed to have been 4.5% in 2009, rising to a forecast 5.2% in 2010. We foresee average annual growth of 5.3% in 2010-2014. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 965,000b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 1.01mnb/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by 2.0- 2.5% per annum to 2014. Our estimates imply demand of 1.36mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 394,000b/d by 2014. Gas production, rising to an estimated 84bcm by 2014, should provide end-period export potential of 37.1bcm, with supply risk on the downside.
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010 : http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=8824UCVOC287819&prk=8138ec67d25801a2339a5bca963d2a85
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