Twenty of 40 analysts, or 50 percent, forecast oil will drop through April 16. Twelve respondents, or 30 percent, predicted that futures will increase and eight said the contract will be little changed. Last week, 45 percent of analysts said there would be a decrease in prices.
U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose 1.98 million barrels to 356.2 million last week, leaving supplies 7.1 percent above the five-year average for the period, according to an Energy Department report on April 7. Total U.S. fuel consumption slipped 0.6 percent to 18.9 million barrels a day last week, the report showed.
New York futures for May delivery reached $87.09 a barrel on April 6, the highest level since October 2008.
“Higher prices are not going to convert the current market surplus into a deficit,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “On the contrary, pushing the price to an even higher level would only put further pressure on consumers to conserve and give OPEC an added incentive for boosting supply.”
The crude oil contract for May delivery rose 5 cents to $84.92 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are 63 percent higher than a year ago.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 48 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
--With assistance from Grant Smith in London and Christian Schmollinger, Yee Kai Pin and Ann Koh in Singapore and Michio Nakayama in Tokyo. Editors: Joe Link, Charlotte Porter
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net
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